NWS Update
04/07/2024
NWS UPDATE Sunday 4/7/2024 -
Severe Storm Threat Monday (Eclipse Day) through Wednesday
Bottom Line
(See the specific cloud forecast section for more detailed information regarding the Eclipse)
The forecast for Eclipse Day continues to be mostly cloudy due to a combination of high and low clouds, but partial viewability is still likely in some areas. There is a potential for severe storms late Monday (after the eclipse) through Wednesday with all hazards possible.
Overview
● Thunderstorm Forecast for Eclipse Day:
○ There's a 10-30% chance for showers/storms before and around eclipse time, with the highest chances across southern Central Texas.
○ The primary window for any strong to severe thunderstorms to develop is still late Monday afternoon and evening, AFTER the Eclipse has occurred.
○ The primary threat with the activity Monday afternoon and evening is large hail, but a threat for damaging winds and tornadoes also exists.
■ The threat for severe weather is expected to continue into the overnight hours, including a potential for nighttime tornadoes.
● Additional widespread thunderstorms are expected Tuesday into Wednesday impacting post-eclipse activity clean up and travel. A severe weather and flooding threat exists both days.
● Most rain is expected to exit the region by Thursday.
Forecast Overview for April 8th
● Cloud Forecast for Eclipse Day: Mostly Cloudy (defined as 50-90% cloud cover)
○ What's Changed: The forecast has trended towards thinner and less obstructive high clouds. Confidence is increasing in the potential for some scattering of low clouds by eclipse time, but this is still uncertain.
○ Eclipse viewability will largely depend on how far northward dense low clouds spread on Monday morning, and how dense high clouds will be.
○ Low clouds are likely to be in place in Central Texas and will be expanding into North Texas just prior to or during eclipse time.
■ Low cloud cover will substantially reduce viewability.
■ A small fraction of locations (10-20%) could see brief breaks in the low cloud cover which may offer more optimal viewability, but the locations of these cloud breaks cannot be forecast well in advance.
■ Coverage of low clouds in North Texas could remain fairly scattered, offering decent viewability.
○ There is high confidence that high clouds will be in place.
■ High clouds are often thinner and could allow for partial viewability of the Eclipse, however viewability may still become obstructed wherever denser pockets of high clouds develop.
What We Are Certain Of
● Multiple rounds of severe weather is expected during the first half of the week, including threats for large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, and flash flooding.
● The primary window for severe weather on Monday will be AFTER the Eclipse has occurred.
● High clouds are expected over most of the region Monday but are expected to remain thin.
● Low clouds are expected across portions of Central Texas on Monday, and will be expanding into North Texas just prior to or during eclipse time.
What We Are Less Certain Of
● How far north the dense low clouds on Monday will spread prior to Eclipse time and how much scattering and breaks in these clouds will exist.
● Coverage and timing of rounds of storms Tuesday through Wednesday.
Additional Resources
NWS Fort Worth Eclipse Website: https://www.weather.gov/fwd/eclipse2024
Hourly Forecasts (Click on your location): https://www.weather.gov/forecastpoints
NWS Fort Worth Hazard Pages: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=fwd
National Weather & Hazards Data Viewer: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?obs=true